|Table of Contents|

Life prediction model for corroded RC bridges based on Bayesian p-box algorithm(PDF)

《建筑科学与工程学报》[ISSN:1673-2049/CN:61-1442/TU]

Issue:
2025年05期
Page:
145-154
Research Field:
隧道工程
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Life prediction model for corroded RC bridges based on Bayesian p-box algorithm
Author(s):
DAI Lizhao;  LIU Peng;  HU Zhuo;  WANG Lei;  HE Jinlong
(School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114, Hunan, China)
Keywords:
corroded RC bridge;  remaining life;  Bayesian probability box;  epistemic uncertainty;  target reliability
PACS:
TU375
DOI:
10.19815/j.jace.2024.05007
Abstract:
In order to effectively reduce the impact of uncertainty in steel corrosion on the service performance of bridges, a two-layer dynamic prediction method for the remaining life of corroded reinforced concrete(RC)bridges was proposed. The upper level model used Bayesian probability box(p-box)to obtain the mean interval of steel corrosion parameters Aw and αsr to quantify the cognitive uncertainty of steel corrosion rate. The lower level model combined the quantitative results of the upper level model with the target reliability based on personal safety to implement the remaining life interval of bridge in the reliability assessment process. Based on the proposed method, the variation law of the remaining life interval of an existing RC bridge under different data capacities and pitting spatial variability was verified. The results show that the consideration of spatial variability in pitting corrosion and the increase in data capacity will result in a reduction of approximately 0.43% and 0.72% in the remaining life interval variability of simply supported T-beam bridge respectively. The more sample detection information absorbed by the reliability evaluation model, the better the effect of converting the fixed value of the remaining life of the bridge into interval analysis, which can effectively improve the quantitative accuracy of the uncertainty of steel corrosion cognition.

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Last Update: 2025-09-25