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《建筑科学与工程学报》[ISSN:1673-2049/CN:61-1442/TU]

卷:

42卷

期数:

2025年05期

页码:

145-154

栏目:

隧道工程

出版日期:

2025-09-30

文章信息/Info

Title:

Life prediction model for corroded RC bridges based on Bayesian p-box algorithm

文章编号:

1673-2049(2025)05-0145-10

作者:

戴理朝,刘鹏,胡卓,王磊,贺锦龙

(长沙理工大学 土木与环境工程学院,湖南 长沙 410114)

Author(s):

DAI Lizhao, LIU Peng, HU Zhuo, WANG Lei, HE Jinlong

(School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114, Hunan, China)

关键词:

锈蚀RC桥梁;  剩余寿命;  贝叶斯概率盒;  认知不确定性;  目标可靠度

Keywords:

corroded RC bridge;  remaining life;  Bayesian probability box;  epistemic uncertainty;  target reliability

分类号:

TU375

DOI:

10.19815/j.jace.2024.05007

文献标志码:

A

摘要:

为有效降低钢筋锈蚀不确定性对桥梁服役性能的影响,提出了锈蚀钢筋混凝土(RC)桥梁剩余寿命双层动态预测方法,即上层模型利用贝叶斯概率盒(p-box)获取钢筋锈蚀参数A_w和α_sr的均值区间来实现钢筋锈蚀率的认知不确定性量化; 下层模型基于人身安全的目标可靠度进行分析,结合上层模型的量化结果评估桥梁剩余寿命区间。基于所提方法验证了不同数据容量和点蚀空间变异性下一座既有RC桥梁剩余寿命区间的变化规律。结果表明:考虑点蚀空间变异性和数据容量增长会导致简支T梁桥剩余寿命区间变异性分别降低约0.43%和0.72%; 可靠度评估模型吸收的样本检测信息越多,将桥梁剩余寿命固定值转化为区间分析的效果就会越好,能有效提高钢筋锈蚀认知不确定性的量化精度。

Abstract:

In order to effectively reduce the impact of uncertainty in steel corrosion on the service performance of bridges, a two-layer dynamic prediction method for the remaining life of corroded reinforced concrete(RC)bridges was proposed. The upper level model used Bayesian probability box(p-box)to obtain the mean interval of steel corrosion parameters A_w and α_sr to quantify the cognitive uncertainty of steel corrosion rate. The lower level model combined the quantitative results of the upper level model with the target reliability based on personal safety to implement the remaining life interval of bridge in the reliability assessment process. Based on the proposed method, the variation law of the remaining life interval of an existing RC bridge under different data capacities and pitting spatial variability was verified. The results show that the consideration of spatial variability in pitting corrosion and the increase in data capacity will result in a reduction of approximately 0.43% and 0.72% in the remaining life interval variability of simply supported T-beam bridge respectively. The more sample detection information absorbed by the reliability evaluation model, the better the effect of converting the fixed value of the remaining life of the bridge into interval analysis, which can effectively improve the quantitative accuracy of the uncertainty of steel corrosion cognition.

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相似文献/References:

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:

收稿日期:2024-05-04 投稿网址:http://jace.chd.edu.cn
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFB2600900); 国家自然科学基金项目(52278140,52008035); 湖南省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S202310536082)
作者简介:戴理朝(1989-),男,工学博士,副教授,E-mail:lizhaod@csust.edu.cn。
Author resume: DAI Lizhao(1989-), male, PhD, associate professor, E-mail: lizhaod@csust.edu.cn.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2025-09-25